Ecuadorian flower exports and their seasonality: an econometric analysis using GARCH modeling
Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed appro...
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| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Articulo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
2024
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/175354 |
| Aporte de: |
| Sumario: | Exports of natural flowers as macroeconomic variables present repetitive behaviors or patterns; the objective of this research is to obtain a GARCH econometric model of the seasonal behavior of Ecuadorian flowers in the international market. The applied methodology was descriptive with a mixed approach and quantitative approach to a total of 259 monthly data from January 2000 to July 2022. For this study, the Box - Jenkins or seasonal ARIMA time series methodology known as SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model) was used with the Eviews 9 program. The results showed that the application of a GARCH model to a seasonal model was adequate to forecast five out-of-sample data after generating a first difference to the original model because it was not stationary, the peak export months are February, March, and May, respectively; the first because there is a significant boom every year as a result of the fact that in this month the day of love and friendship is celebrated and orders worldwide multiply, and the third for Mother's Day. |
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