Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction /
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning th...
Guardado en:
| Autor principal: | |
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| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Libro |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
New York :
Crown,
c2015.
|
| Edición: | 1st ed. |
| Materias: | |
| Aporte de: | Registro referencial: Solicitar el recurso aquí |
| LEADER | 02688nam a2200361Ia 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 990000652680204151 | ||
| 005 | 20241030105044.0 | ||
| 008 | 160307s2015 nyua b 001 0 eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9780804136693 (hardcover) | ||
| 020 | |a 0804136696 (hardcover) | ||
| 020 | |z 9780804136709 (ebook) | ||
| 020 | |a 9780804136716 (paperback) | ||
| 020 | |a 0804136718 |q (paperback) | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)000065268 | ||
| 035 | |a (udesa)000065268USA01 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)944031934 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)990000652680204151 | ||
| 040 | |a U@S |b spa |c U@S | ||
| 049 | |a U@SA | ||
| 050 | 4 | |a HB3730 |b .T47 2015 | |
| 100 | 1 | |a Tetlock, Philip E. |q (Philip Eyrikson), |d 1954- | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Superforecasting : |b the art and science of prediction / |c Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. |
| 250 | |a 1st ed. | ||
| 260 | |a New York : |b Crown, |c c2015. | ||
| 300 | |a 340 p. : |b il. ; |c 25 cm. | ||
| 504 | |a Incluye referencias bibliográficas (p. 291-328) e índice. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a An optimistic skeptic -- Illusions of knowledge -- Keeping score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual beta -- Superteams -- The leader's dilemma -- Are they really so super? -- What's next? -- Epilogue -- An invitation -- Appendix: Ten commandments for aspiring superforecasters. | |
| 520 | |a "From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good ..."--Descripción del editor. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Forecasting. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Pronósticos económicos. |2 UDESA | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Pronóstico. |2 UDESA | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gardner, Dan, |d 1968- | |