Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody

If the winds were elusive for Latin American economies so many times in the20th century, this time the story seems to be being different. China’s rapid recoverysince the end of the second quarter of 2020, the reopening of a significantpart of industrial and productive activities in developed countri...

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Autor principal:	Svarzman, Gustavo
Formato:	Artículo publishedVersion
Lenguaje:	Español
Publicado:	Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) 2022
Materias:	Exportaciones Importaciones Commodities Precios internacionales America Latina y el Caribe Comercio exterior Crisis Shock externo Saldo comercial Crecimiento economico Exports imports international prices Latin America and the Caribbean Foreign trade External shock Trade balance Economic growth
Acceso en línea:	https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2431 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2431_oai
Aporte de:	Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

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spelling	I28-R145-2431_oai2025-02-11 Svarzman, Gustavo 2022-11-25 If the winds were elusive for Latin American economies so many times in the20th century, this time the story seems to be being different. China’s rapid recoverysince the end of the second quarter of 2020, the reopening of a significantpart of industrial and productive activities in developed countries, the expansionarymonetary policies of the main developed countries, and the gradualnormalization of the international transport system resulted in in an incipientimprovement in the international prices of the main agricultural and miningcommodities towards mid-2020, a trend that accelerated towards the end ofthat year and early 2021.In any case, the aggregate impact of the price shock does not seem to havereached macroeconomically significant levels, both in relation to its ability todrive higher GDP growth and / or the per capita income levels of the differentcountries. And so, and as so many times in history, commodity price cycles onceagain put in white on black the need of different countries to take advantage ofthe ascending phases to implement mechanisms that favor the developmentof forward linkages that allow not only adding value to natural resources, butalso moving towards productive structures less dependent on products thathave historically been characterized by the volatility of their international prices. Si tantas veces en el siglo XX los vientos fueron esquivos para las economías latinoamericanas,en esta oportunidad la historia parece estar siendo diferente.La rápida recuperación de China desde fines del segundo trimestre de 2020, lareapertura de una parte importante de las actividades industriales y productivasen los países desarrollados, las políticas monetarias expansivas de losprincipales países desarrollados y la paulatina normalización del sistema detransporte internacional se tradujeron en una incipiente mejora en los preciosinternacionales de las principales commodities agropecuarias y mineras haciamediados de 2020, tendencia que se fue acelerando hacia fines de dicho añoy principios de 2021.De todas maneras, el impacto agregado del shock de precios no parece haberalcanzado niveles macroeconómicamente significativos, tanto en relación asu capacidad para impulsar un mayor crecimiento del PIB y/o de los nivelesde ingreso per cápita de los diferentes países. Y así, y como tantas veces enla historia, los ciclos de precios de las commodities vuelven a poner en blancosobre negro la necesidad de los diferentes países por aprovechar las fasesascendentes para implementar mecanismos que favorezcan el desarrollo deeslabonamientos hacia delante que permitan no solo agregar valor a los recursosnaturales, sino también avanzar hacia estructuras productivas menosdependientes de productos que han sido históricamente caracterizados por lavolatilidad de sus precios internacionales. application/pdf https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2431 spa Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET) https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2431/3183 Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; Núm. 61 (2021): Documento de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política UBA CONICET; 1-28 Working Papers series at Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política; No. 61 (2021): Working paper Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política UBA CONICET; 1-28 2451-5728 Exportaciones Importaciones Commodities Precios internacionales America Latina y el Caribe Comercio exterior Crisis Shock externo Saldo comercial Crecimiento economico Exports imports Commodities international prices Latin America and the Caribbean Foreign trade Crisis External shock Trade balance Economic growth Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody Buenos vientos comerciales para América Latina: pero no para todos info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2431_oai
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-145
collection	Repositorio Digital de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA)
language	Español
orig_language_str_mv	spa
topic	Exportaciones Importaciones Commodities Precios internacionales America Latina y el Caribe Comercio exterior Crisis Shock externo Saldo comercial Crecimiento economico Exports imports Commodities international prices Latin America and the Caribbean Foreign trade Crisis External shock Trade balance Economic growth
spellingShingle	Exportaciones Importaciones Commodities Precios internacionales America Latina y el Caribe Comercio exterior Crisis Shock externo Saldo comercial Crecimiento economico Exports imports Commodities international prices Latin America and the Caribbean Foreign trade Crisis External shock Trade balance Economic growth Svarzman, Gustavo Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
topic_facet	Exportaciones Importaciones Commodities Precios internacionales America Latina y el Caribe Comercio exterior Crisis Shock externo Saldo comercial Crecimiento economico Exports imports Commodities international prices Latin America and the Caribbean Foreign trade Crisis External shock Trade balance Economic growth
description	If the winds were elusive for Latin American economies so many times in the20th century, this time the story seems to be being different. China’s rapid recoverysince the end of the second quarter of 2020, the reopening of a significantpart of industrial and productive activities in developed countries, the expansionarymonetary policies of the main developed countries, and the gradualnormalization of the international transport system resulted in in an incipientimprovement in the international prices of the main agricultural and miningcommodities towards mid-2020, a trend that accelerated towards the end ofthat year and early 2021.In any case, the aggregate impact of the price shock does not seem to havereached macroeconomically significant levels, both in relation to its ability todrive higher GDP growth and / or the per capita income levels of the differentcountries. And so, and as so many times in history, commodity price cycles onceagain put in white on black the need of different countries to take advantage ofthe ascending phases to implement mechanisms that favor the developmentof forward linkages that allow not only adding value to natural resources, butalso moving towards productive structures less dependent on products thathave historically been characterized by the volatility of their international prices.
format	Artículo publishedVersion
author	Svarzman, Gustavo
author_facet	Svarzman, Gustavo
author_sort	Svarzman, Gustavo
title	Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
title_short	Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
title_full	Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
title_fullStr	Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
title_full_unstemmed	Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody
title_sort	good winds for latin america: but not for everybody
publisher	Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (IIEP UBA-CONICET)
publishDate	2022
url	https://ojs.economicas.uba.ar/DT-IIEP/article/view/2431 https://repositoriouba.sisbi.uba.ar/gsdl/cgi-bin/library.cgi?a=d&c=dociiep&d=2431_oai
work_keys_str_mv	AT svarzmangustavo goodwindsforlatinamericabutnotforeverybody AT svarzmangustavo buenosvientoscomercialesparaamericalatinaperonoparatodos
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Good winds for Latin America: but not for everybody

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