Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)

For decades, Argentina's long-run divergence has intrigued economic historians. While by the late nineteenth century the country ranked among the world's richest economies, it now occupies a middle position in the global income distribution (Bolt and van Zanden, 2020). A distinctive featur...

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Autor principal: Catelén, Ana Laura
Formato: Documento de conferencia acceptedVersion
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: 2026
Materias:
Crecimiento Económico
Volatilidad
Ciclos Económicos
Acceso en línea:https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/1/catelen-2026.pdf
Aporte de:
Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP) de Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
id I29-R135-4470
record_format dspace
spelling I29-R135-44702026-03-13T16:17:02Z Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020) Catelén, Ana Laura For decades, Argentina's long-run divergence has intrigued economic historians. While by the late nineteenth century the country ranked among the world's richest economies, it now occupies a middle position in the global income distribution (Bolt and van Zanden, 2020). A distinctive feature of Argentina's experience, relevant for explaining this outcome, is the marked rise in macroeconomic volatility since the mid-1970s. Unlike other South American economies, this instability has intensified over time (Catelén, 2025), and elevated volatility undermines long-run growth (Badinger, 2010; Loayza & Hnatkovska, 2004; Pastor, 2017; Ramey & Ramey, 1994). Latin American structuralist theory provides a useful framework to understand why volatility itself becomes persistent through the emergence of vicious cyclical dynamics. These dynamics involve recurrent interaction processes that amplify and prolong fluctuations. A central mechanism in this approach is structural distributive conflict, defined as the gap between workers' wage aspirations and the economy's productive capacity (Rapetti & Gerchunoff, 2016). This paper revisits this theoretical tradition and combines it with a modern empirical approach based on a structural VAR framework that allows for causal interpretation to assess whether the interaction between distributive conflict and economic policy can account for Argentina's recurrent cycles of instability that undermine long-run growth. The analysis examines the historical evolution of distributive conflict across three development regimes (the agro-export model, state- led industrialization, and the second globalization) within a structuralist framework linking external constraints, distributive conflict, and macroeconomic instability. 2026 https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/ application/pdf eng https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/1/catelen-2026.pdf Economic History Society Centenary Conference 2026, London [GBR], April 10-12, 2026. Argentina 1890-2020 info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject info:ar-repo/semantics/documento de conferencia info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion Fil: Catelén, Ana Laura. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales; Argentina. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Ciencias Sociales; España. Crecimiento Económico Volatilidad Ciclos Económicos info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es
institution Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (UNMdP)
institution_str I-29
repository_str R-135
collection Nulan - Fac.Cs.Económicas (UNMdP)
language Inglés
orig_language_str_mv eng
topic Crecimiento Económico
Volatilidad
Ciclos Económicos
spellingShingle Crecimiento Económico
Volatilidad
Ciclos Económicos
Catelén, Ana Laura
Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
topic_facet Crecimiento Económico
Volatilidad
Ciclos Económicos
description For decades, Argentina's long-run divergence has intrigued economic historians. While by the late nineteenth century the country ranked among the world's richest economies, it now occupies a middle position in the global income distribution (Bolt and van Zanden, 2020). A distinctive feature of Argentina's experience, relevant for explaining this outcome, is the marked rise in macroeconomic volatility since the mid-1970s. Unlike other South American economies, this instability has intensified over time (Catelén, 2025), and elevated volatility undermines long-run growth (Badinger, 2010; Loayza & Hnatkovska, 2004; Pastor, 2017; Ramey & Ramey, 1994). Latin American structuralist theory provides a useful framework to understand why volatility itself becomes persistent through the emergence of vicious cyclical dynamics. These dynamics involve recurrent interaction processes that amplify and prolong fluctuations. A central mechanism in this approach is structural distributive conflict, defined as the gap between workers' wage aspirations and the economy's productive capacity (Rapetti & Gerchunoff, 2016). This paper revisits this theoretical tradition and combines it with a modern empirical approach based on a structural VAR framework that allows for causal interpretation to assess whether the interaction between distributive conflict and economic policy can account for Argentina's recurrent cycles of instability that undermine long-run growth. The analysis examines the historical evolution of distributive conflict across three development regimes (the agro-export model, state- led industrialization, and the second globalization) within a structuralist framework linking external constraints, distributive conflict, and macroeconomic instability.
format Documento de conferencia
Documento de conferencia
acceptedVersion
author Catelén, Ana Laura
author_facet Catelén, Ana Laura
author_sort Catelén, Ana Laura
title Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
title_short Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
title_full Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
title_fullStr Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
title_full_unstemmed Distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in Argentina (1890-2020)
title_sort distributive conflict, economic policy, and macroeconomic volatility in argentina (1890-2020)
publishDate 2026
url https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/
https://nulan.mdp.edu.ar/id/eprint/4470/1/catelen-2026.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT catelenanalaura distributiveconflicteconomicpolicyandmacroeconomicvolatilityinargentina18902020
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