Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean
Fil: Vecino-Ortiz AI. Department of International Health, Health Systems program, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
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2026
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| Acceso en línea: | http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4827 |
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I61-R167-123456789-4827 |
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dspace |
| institution |
Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad (CEDES) |
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I-61 |
| repository_str |
R-167 |
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Respositorio Digital CRIS del CEDES - Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad |
| language |
Inglés |
| topic |
FACTORES DE RIESGO AMERICA LATINA PREVALENCIA GASTOS EN SALUD CARIBE |
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FACTORES DE RIESGO AMERICA LATINA PREVALENCIA GASTOS EN SALUD CARIBE López-Hernández, Angelica Prado, Andrea Metivier, Charmaine Laptiste, Christine La Foucade, Althea Rao, Krishna D Vega Landaeta, Angela P Flores, Yvonne N Beharry, Vyjanti Giusti, Paulina Machado, Carla Noonan, Caitlin M Roberton, Timothy Mora-García, Claudio A Maceira, Daniel Vecino-Ortiz, Andres I Samuels, T Alafia Palacio-Martínez, Natalia Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| topic_facet |
FACTORES DE RIESGO AMERICA LATINA PREVALENCIA GASTOS EN SALUD CARIBE |
| description |
Fil: Vecino-Ortiz AI. Department of International Health, Health Systems program, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America |
| format |
Artículo |
| author |
López-Hernández, Angelica Prado, Andrea Metivier, Charmaine Laptiste, Christine La Foucade, Althea Rao, Krishna D Vega Landaeta, Angela P Flores, Yvonne N Beharry, Vyjanti Giusti, Paulina Machado, Carla Noonan, Caitlin M Roberton, Timothy Mora-García, Claudio A Maceira, Daniel Vecino-Ortiz, Andres I Samuels, T Alafia Palacio-Martínez, Natalia |
| author_facet |
López-Hernández, Angelica Prado, Andrea Metivier, Charmaine Laptiste, Christine La Foucade, Althea Rao, Krishna D Vega Landaeta, Angela P Flores, Yvonne N Beharry, Vyjanti Giusti, Paulina Machado, Carla Noonan, Caitlin M Roberton, Timothy Mora-García, Claudio A Maceira, Daniel Vecino-Ortiz, Andres I Samuels, T Alafia Palacio-Martínez, Natalia |
| author_sort |
López-Hernández, Angelica |
| title |
Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_short |
Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_full |
Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_fullStr |
Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_sort |
bending the curve: modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in latin america and the caribbean |
| publishDate |
2026 |
| url |
http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4827 |
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I61-R167-123456789-48272026-04-21T04:25:04Z Bending the curve: Modeling the impact of reducing risk factors for noncommunicable diseases to control future health expenditures in Latin America and the Caribbean López-Hernández, Angelica Prado, Andrea Metivier, Charmaine Laptiste, Christine La Foucade, Althea Rao, Krishna D Vega Landaeta, Angela P Flores, Yvonne N Beharry, Vyjanti Giusti, Paulina Machado, Carla Noonan, Caitlin M Roberton, Timothy Mora-García, Claudio A Maceira, Daniel Vecino-Ortiz, Andres I Samuels, T Alafia Palacio-Martínez, Natalia FACTORES DE RIESGO AMERICA LATINA PREVALENCIA GASTOS EN SALUD CARIBE Fil: Vecino-Ortiz AI. Department of International Health, Health Systems program, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America Fil: Roberton T. Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, School of Population and Global Health, University of Western Australia; Perth, Australia Fil: López-Hernández A. Department of International Health, Health Systems program, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America Fil: Noonan CM. Department of International Health, Health Systems program, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America Fil: Vega Landaeta AP. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Instituto de Salud Pública; Bogotá, Colombia Fil: Maceira D. University of Buenos Aires, Economics Department; National Council for Scientific and Technical Research (CONICET); Center for the Study of State and Society (CEDES); Buenos Aires, Argentina Fil: Flores YN. Unidad de Investigación Epidemiológica y en Servicios de Salud, Morelos, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social; Cuernavaca, Morelos, México Fil: Mora-García CA. Business School, INCAE University; San Jose, Costa Rica Fil: Giusti P. Instituto de Análisis y Gestión; Lima, Perú Fil: Samuels TA. Caribbean Institute for Health Research, The University of the West Indies; Kingston, Jamaica Fil: Palacio-Martínez N. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, Bogota, Colombia Fil: Prado A. Business School, INCAE University; San Jose, Costa Rica Fil: Machado C. School of Medicine, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Belo Horizonte, Brazil Fil: Metivier C. HEU, Centre for Health Economics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus; St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Fil: Laptiste C. HEU, Centre for Health Economics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Fil: La Foucade A. HEU, Centre for Health Economics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago Fil: Beharry V. HEU, Centre for Health Economics, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine Campus; St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago [ABSTRACT]: Addressing the World Health Organization's noncommunicable disease (NCD) "best buys" is key to reducing the disease burden in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Yet, the potential impact of addressing NCD risk factors on current health expenditures (CHE) in LAC countries is unknown. This study uses both Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and administrative information to model the impact of addressing four risk factors on CHE trends for 24 LAC countries. A comparative risk assessment model estimates changes in CHE associated with reducing five NCDs. Reducing the prevalence of the four risk factors by 10% could save $ 185 billion in cumulative expenditure by 2050 (1.32% of cumulative expenditure from 2020 to 2050) for all LAC countries assessed, with substantial heterogeneity across risk factors. Reducing the prevalence of high blood pressure had the largest impact. On average, a reduction of 10% in high blood pressure, tobacco use, high blood glucose, and alcohol use would reduce cumulative CHE by US$59bn (0.4% of the cumulative CHE by 2050), US$68bn (0.5%), US$46bn (0.3%), and US$12bn (0.1%), respectively for all LAC countries. While addressing NCD risk factors is a key step to improving health in LAC countries, the impact on CHE is relatively small though meaningful in absolute terms, and additional strategies need to be implemented to control increasing CHE levels that threaten health systems' sustainability 2026-04-20T17:53:28Z 2026-04-20T17:53:28Z 2025-07-18 Artículo http://repositorio.cedes.org/handle/123456789/4827 2767-3375 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004791 en PLOS Glob Public Health;2025 Jul 18;5(7):e0004791 |