Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions

A statistically significant relationship is found between the seasonal volume October-March of the Diamante River (central Andes mountains of Argentina) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino3 region of the Pacific Ocean (5°S-5°N, 90°W-150°W), during the previous March-April and simultane...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Berri, G.J., Flamenco, E.A.
Formato:	JOUR
Materias:	El Nino-Southern Oscillation river discharge seasonality volume Argentina
Acceso en línea:	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00431397_v35_n12_p3803_Berri
Aporte de:	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires

id	todo:paper_00431397_v35_n12_p3803_Berri
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spelling	todo:paper_00431397_v35_n12_p3803_Berri2023-10-03T14:51:31Z Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions Berri, G.J. Flamenco, E.A. El Nino-Southern Oscillation river discharge seasonality volume Argentina A statistically significant relationship is found between the seasonal volume October-March of the Diamante River (central Andes mountains of Argentina) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino3 region of the Pacific Ocean (5°S-5°N, 90°W-150°W), during the previous March-April and simultaneous November-December. The Nino3 SST anomalies are positively correlated with seasonal volume anomalies. A multiple linear regression model for October-March water volume predictions is developed, making use of Nino3 anomalies observed during March-April and six-month November-December Nino3 forecast produced in May. A cross-validation analysis of three-category (tercile) forecasts for the period 1980-1994 reveals a 73% model skill, equal to that of the snowpack thickness model in use. The results of this study are of practical application to hydrologic forecast for water resources management and hydroelectricity generation. This methodology would allow the water resources administrator to have available every year in May a forecast of the water available in the system during the following melting period October-March, before the wintertime snowfalls. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00431397_v35_n12_p3803_Berri
institution	Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str	I-28
repository_str	R-134
collection	Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic	El Nino-Southern Oscillation river discharge seasonality volume Argentina
spellingShingle	El Nino-Southern Oscillation river discharge seasonality volume Argentina Berri, G.J. Flamenco, E.A. Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
topic_facet	El Nino-Southern Oscillation river discharge seasonality volume Argentina
description	A statistically significant relationship is found between the seasonal volume October-March of the Diamante River (central Andes mountains of Argentina) and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nino3 region of the Pacific Ocean (5°S-5°N, 90°W-150°W), during the previous March-April and simultaneous November-December. The Nino3 SST anomalies are positively correlated with seasonal volume anomalies. A multiple linear regression model for October-March water volume predictions is developed, making use of Nino3 anomalies observed during March-April and six-month November-December Nino3 forecast produced in May. A cross-validation analysis of three-category (tercile) forecasts for the period 1980-1994 reveals a 73% model skill, equal to that of the snowpack thickness model in use. The results of this study are of practical application to hydrologic forecast for water resources management and hydroelectricity generation. This methodology would allow the water resources administrator to have available every year in May a forecast of the water available in the system during the following melting period October-March, before the wintertime snowfalls.
format	JOUR
author	Berri, G.J. Flamenco, E.A.
author_facet	Berri, G.J. Flamenco, E.A.
author_sort	Berri, G.J.
title	Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
title_short	Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
title_full	Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
title_fullStr	Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
title_full_unstemmed	Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions
title_sort	seasonal volume forecast of the diamante river, argentina, based on el nino observations and predictions
url	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_00431397_v35_n12_p3803_Berri
work_keys_str_mv	AT berrigj seasonalvolumeforecastofthediamanteriverargentinabasedonelninoobservationsandpredictions AT flamencoea seasonalvolumeforecastofthediamanteriverargentinabasedonelninoobservationsandpredictions
_version_	1807323051255136256

Seasonal volume forecast of the Diamante River, Argentina, based on El Nino observations and predictions

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