Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin

There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases i...

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Autores principales: Saurral, R.I., Montroull, N.B., Camilloni, I.A.
Formato: JOUR
Materias:
future hydrology scenarios
impact studies
La Plata Basin
regional climate models
climate modeling
future prospect
hydrological modeling
regional climate
streamflow
twenty first century
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
Aporte de:
Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
id todo:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
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spelling todo:paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral2023-10-03T16:27:16Z Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin Saurral, R.I. Montroull, N.B. Camilloni, I.A. future hydrology scenarios impact studies La Plata Basin regional climate models climate modeling future prospect hydrological modeling regional climate streamflow twenty first century La Plata Basin There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. © 2014 © 2014 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research. Fil:Saurral, R.I. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Montroull, N.B. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Fil:Camilloni, I.A. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. JOUR info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
topic future hydrology scenarios
impact studies
La Plata Basin
regional climate models
climate modeling
future prospect
hydrological modeling
regional climate
streamflow
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
spellingShingle future hydrology scenarios
impact studies
La Plata Basin
regional climate models
climate modeling
future prospect
hydrological modeling
regional climate
streamflow
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
Saurral, R.I.
Montroull, N.B.
Camilloni, I.A.
Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
topic_facet future hydrology scenarios
impact studies
La Plata Basin
regional climate models
climate modeling
future prospect
hydrological modeling
regional climate
streamflow
twenty first century
La Plata Basin
description There is an increasing demand for future climate scenarios, particularly for impact studies. In this study, simulation outputs taken from a set of three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to force a hydrologic model to derive future streamflow scenarios for La Plata Basin. As RCMs have biases in their mean precipitation and temperature fields, a statistical scheme is previously used to remove the systematic part of the bias. Future hydrologic scenarios were derived considering two future periods: 2021-2040 (near future) and 2071-2090 (far future). In terms of climate projections, RCMs predict warmer conditions in almost the whole basin, while precipitation variations are not uniform in sign across the region but overall tend to be positive over the southern part of the basin. Nevertheless, a trend towards a gradual increase in streamflow was found for the majority of the rivers in the basin particularly for the near future followed by less uniform variations towards the end of the present century. Future changes in the largest monthly streamflow are similar to those in the mean values, with also some differences among RCMs and on the period and sub-basin considered. © 2014 © 2014 International Association for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research.
format JOUR
author Saurral, R.I.
Montroull, N.B.
Camilloni, I.A.
author_facet Saurral, R.I.
Montroull, N.B.
Camilloni, I.A.
author_sort Saurral, R.I.
title Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_short Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_fullStr Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_full_unstemmed Development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over La Plata Basin
title_sort development of statistically unbiased twenty-first century hydrology scenarios over la plata basin
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_15715124_v11_n4_p329_Saurral
work_keys_str_mv AT saurralri developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin
AT montroullnb developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin
AT camilloniia developmentofstatisticallyunbiasedtwentyfirstcenturyhydrologyscenariosoverlaplatabasin
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