The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature

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Solar variability is governed by the solar dynamo, an intricate interplay between the sun's poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components. The most pronounced periodicity is the Schwabe cycle of about 11 years duration, and the Hale cycle, consisting of two successive Schwabe cycles. Another...

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Autores principales: De Jager, C., Duhau, S.
Formato: CHAP
Acceso en línea:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_97816172_v_n_p77_DeJager
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Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA) de Universidad de Buenos Aires
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spelling todo:paper_97816172_v_n_p77_DeJager2023-10-03T16:44:20Z The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature De Jager, C. Duhau, S. Solar variability is governed by the solar dynamo, an intricate interplay between the sun's poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components. The most pronounced periodicity is the Schwabe cycle of about 11 years duration, and the Hale cycle, consisting of two successive Schwabe cycles. Another important cycle, with variable length, is named after Gleissberg. We describe the role of the two magnetic field components in these periodicities and forward suggestions for the solar mechanisms at work in driving these. We suggest that the Hale cycle is due to magnetohydrodynamic oscillations of the tachocline with a period of about 22 years. The time-behaviour of the longer components, along with information on the phase-relationship between them allows us to forecast the solar future behaviour. We expect a low next solar maximum, around 2014. After the 20th century's Grand Maximum, a Grand Minimum will start in one or two decades from present. It will last for at least one Gleissberg cycle. We describe the correlation of the two solar magnetic field components with terrestrial surface temperature variations for the period 1610 to 1970. About 40% of the gradual increase of terrestrial surface temperature is correlated with solar variability. Of this amount about two-thirds is correlated with toroidal field variations and that component can fully be explained quantitatively by the gradual increase of Total Solar Irradiance and the consequent feedback by evaporated gases. A yet unexplained fraction of ~30% is correlated with the poloidal field. After subtracting these components the residual smoothed global warming was 0.31 degrees in 1999. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. CHAP info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ar http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_97816172_v_n_p77_DeJager
institution Universidad de Buenos Aires
institution_str I-28
repository_str R-134
collection Biblioteca Digital - Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales (UBA)
description Solar variability is governed by the solar dynamo, an intricate interplay between the sun's poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components. The most pronounced periodicity is the Schwabe cycle of about 11 years duration, and the Hale cycle, consisting of two successive Schwabe cycles. Another important cycle, with variable length, is named after Gleissberg. We describe the role of the two magnetic field components in these periodicities and forward suggestions for the solar mechanisms at work in driving these. We suggest that the Hale cycle is due to magnetohydrodynamic oscillations of the tachocline with a period of about 22 years. The time-behaviour of the longer components, along with information on the phase-relationship between them allows us to forecast the solar future behaviour. We expect a low next solar maximum, around 2014. After the 20th century's Grand Maximum, a Grand Minimum will start in one or two decades from present. It will last for at least one Gleissberg cycle. We describe the correlation of the two solar magnetic field components with terrestrial surface temperature variations for the period 1610 to 1970. About 40% of the gradual increase of terrestrial surface temperature is correlated with solar variability. Of this amount about two-thirds is correlated with toroidal field variations and that component can fully be explained quantitatively by the gradual increase of Total Solar Irradiance and the consequent feedback by evaporated gases. A yet unexplained fraction of ~30% is correlated with the poloidal field. After subtracting these components the residual smoothed global warming was 0.31 degrees in 1999. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.
format CHAP
author De Jager, C.
Duhau, S.
spellingShingle De Jager, C.
Duhau, S.
The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
author_facet De Jager, C.
Duhau, S.
author_sort De Jager, C.
title The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
title_short The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
title_full The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
title_fullStr The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
title_full_unstemmed The variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
title_sort variable solar dynamo and the forecast of solar activity; influence on terrestrial surface temperature
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12110/paper_97816172_v_n_p77_DeJager
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